My theory on life

I think most things in life can be fixed by being hydrated 24/7. On top of that, I believe every action you do in your life is a gamble. Some are no-brainer gambles that you are going to win 99.9% of the time, but there is still that .1% failure rate. Basically, every decision you make every day is based on an analysis (some/most of the time) of risk-reward. The only time this becomes apparent is when you have to make a difficult decision and weigh the options carefully.

Risk-reward is fairly simple. When faced with any decision you decide what is the best possible outcome if you do A, this is your reward for doing A. Then you think what the worst possible outcome would be if you do A, your risk. Then you must factor the same two things if you do not do A. Then you make a note of other possible rewards or risks. Lastly, you make an estimate based on the probability of receiving the best possible outcome (and/or other favorable outcomes) versus the worst possible out comes (and/or others detrimental outcomes). This is basically, but not always, missing out on the risks/rewards of doing A. Then you make a "gut" decision based on this data.

Every time you get in your car to drive somewhere you do this analysis. However, generally the risk is so low that you do not even consciously think about it and choose to drive the thirty minutes to work. Things change when there is sever weather outside and the local news reporter is telling you to stay home unless absolutely necessary. All of a sudden, the risk jumps up and you stay home.

Do you eat the cookie or not? If you do, you get to enjoy an amazing cookie that is delicious. However, you may have to exercise to compensate for the extra calories if you are on a diet. If you don't eat the cookie, you may be hungrier later and eat something with more calories than the cookie in an hour or you will be fine and not ruin your diet. What do you do? If you were planning on exercising anyway, you may eat the cookie and if not maybe you wouldn't. It depends on your values for risk and reward. (I would definitely eat the hell out of that cookie and enjoy five more)

Even dating is a risk-reward scenario. If you are trying to "pick-up" a member of the opposite sex then you balance the risks and rewards in your head. Possible risks may include rejection, humiliation, looking like an ass, etc. Rewards include possibility of acceptance, ego boost, relationship, sex, and so forth. If you want to be really psycho you can include divorce as a risk and marriage as a reward (if you want to get married some day) and children in whichever category you choose, but let us save that for a period when it is not picking up a date. Risk of not trying to pick them up is missing out on a potential relationship and not much else. The reward for not asking them out is saving yourself from the possible risks of asking them out. This is why a lot of people are choosy about who they try to pick-up. The risks outweigh the rewards, unless the person is really worth it ... or you have no shame and do not care about rejection (or are desperate). Also, you must weigh in the probability of success ... if you are confident about your chances you will probably go for it (and succeed because of said confidence) and if not, you will probably not (unless egged on by friends and then you fail because you weren't confident). Things are trickier if you already know the person and have to weigh in the value of the friendship you could potentially mess up.

People often talk bad about gambling, but everything in life is a gamble. I just showed that to be true. It is just when you walk into a casino, bet on a game, play cards, or go to the track the odds are always in the favor of the house. That is why those places exist. However, if you view gambling in these venues as pure entertainment then you can minimize your risks to make it worth the risks. You can do this by limiting the amount of money you lose. You always control how much you are betting. When I gamble I set myself a price. This price is what I am comfortable with losing during the day or on a game. I rarely bet on games, and when I do it is for just a few dollars because it is not as fun for me to watch a game with a lot money on it. This is why I like centsports.com and wagerline.com. Cent Sports gives you a renewable 10 cents for free to bet with. You can win real money (but you have to get to 10 dollars to cash out). No risk, real rewards. Fun. Wagerline is free and you see how many in a row you can get correct. Get enough right and win prizes and eventually money. This proves how hard betting is.

For the horse track, casino, or jai alai fronton I still cannot control who wins/what cards come out but I enjoy having money in the pot (so to speak) a lot more than on sporting events. Therefore, I set a limit on how much I can lose and still enjoy myself, this is well before I reach any amount of money that would constitute a risk to my fiscal well being. If I lose this much, I am done for the day ... no matter what (this ability to stop separates me from a person with gamble addiction). If I start to win, then I generally change how much I am allowed to lose. So if I win 100 bucks on the first race, now I say instead of being able to lose 60 for the day, the worst I am allowing myself to do is be 40 bucks ahead.

So in theory, gambling is not the evil. You gamble all of the time. The evil is not correctly assessing your risk-reward and probability of success.

This risk-reward article brought to you be Caesar's Casino and Churchill Downs.